THE GLOBAL & US/CHINA COPPER MARKET: INSIGHTS & PROJECTIONS March 14, 2025

 The global copper market continues to face a supply squeeze, challenging the worldwide economy. Surging demand from electric vehicle (EV) production and renewable energy projects has outpaced supply, with forecasts estimating a gap of 5-6.5 million tonnes by 2030-2031 (Bank of America, Wood Mackenzie).

In 2025, Goldman Sachs projects a 180,000-ton deficit driven by electrification, China’s stimulus, and sluggish mine growth.

 By late 2024, copper traded at $9,413 per tonne, up 9.12% year-over-year. As of March 2025, prices have risen roughly 22.62% since January (Trading Economics), reaching approximately $11,000-$11,500 per tonne. Analysts remain bullish: Goldman Sachs forecasts $10,200 per tonne in Q3 2025 and $15,000 by 2030 to spur supply, while moderate scenarios suggest $12,000-$15,000 by 2030.

 Hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand predicts a speculative $40,000 in a few years, and Jeff Currie sees $15,000.

 Canada has 7.6 million tonnes in reserves (2024 estimate), with firms like Teck Resources and First Quantum mining globally (e.g., Zambia, Panama), alongside domestic players like Eldorado Gold, Taseko Mines, and Capstone, plus junior explorers like Copper Fox and Kutcho Copper.

 The U.S., a net importer from Chile, Canada, and Mexico, may see imports surge 50-100% in 2025, pushing inventories to 300,000-400,000 tons by Q3 amid potential Trump tariffs (Goldman Sachs).

 China, the world’s top copper consumer, faces a supply crunch, with scrap imports reportedly rebounding to 2018 levels in 2024 due to policy shifts, U.S. trade tensions, and strained smelting capacity, despite a $560 billion stimulus boosting demand.

 Copper prices are set for volatility in 2025, driven by geopolitics and Trump’s administration, sworn in January 20, 2025. Proposed tariffs (e.g., 60% on Chinese goods) and deregulation could reshape supply chains and U.S. production, though new mines won’t deliver immediately.

 These shifts promise to redefine the global copper market.

 

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