TRUMP’S TARIFFS/ U.S. & CANADA TRADE
Trade relationships are rooted in strong economic collaboration and understanding, such as the connection between the United States and Canada. This robust commercial alliance is built on a foundation of shared values, geographic proximity, and complementary economic strengths, facilitating a seamless flow of goods, services, and investments across the world's longest international border.
The enormity of bilateral trade is highlighted by the fact that over $2 billion
worth of goods and services are traded between the two nations every day. The
total estimation of this two-way trade between Canada and the United States
reached $918.3 billion in 2023.
Total the U.S. bought from Canada: Goods-US$412.7 billion (per USTR and
BEA) plus Services estimated at US$38.5 billion for a total of US$451.2
billion.
Major categories included: US$
-Mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products: $131.91 billion
-Vehicles (other than railway or tramway): $55 billion
-Machinery, nuclear reactors, and boilers: $31.86 billion
-Commodities not particularized according to kind: $19.97 billion
-Plastics: approximately $13.67 billion
- Other: Remaining goods (e.g., metals, consumer products) fill out the $412.7
billion total, with notable contributions from metal/minerals ($41 billion) and
agri-food.
In 2024, Canada bought approximately $432 billion worth of goods from
the United States. Key commodities included:
-Vehicles: $52 billion
-Nuclear reactors, boilers, and machinery: $49 billion
-Mineral fuels, oils: $35 billion
-Electric machinery: $28 billion
-Plastics & plastic articles: $17 billion
-Florida oranges and orange juice, along with other food products: $230
million.
(This figure includes a variety of citrus products, with Florida being a
significant supplier to the Canadian market.)
Michigan emerges as the front-runner with sales to Canada worth $25.5
billion, followed by Texas ($21 billion), Ohio ($19.6 billion), California
($16.9 billion), and Illinois ($16.3 billion). North Dakota, Maine, and Montana
show particular dependencies on exports to Canada, with 82.5%, 47.5%, and 46.7%
of their total exports purchased by Canada. Canada remains the number 1
customer for as many as 35 U.S. states.
If a 25% tariff were imposed on Canadian goods (as began March 4, 2025,
with 10% on energy) and Canada retaliated with similar measures (e.g., $155
billion in tariffs), the impact on American states and citizens would be
significant:
-U.S. GDP could shrink by 1.6% (approximately $468 billion, based on 2024’s $29.24 trillion GDP).
-The cost to the average American might be about $1,300 per person annually (for 344.5 million people).
-Significant layoffs could occur, particularly in energy (Texas), auto (Michigan), and heavy manufacturing (Ohio) sectors.
-The U.S. could face a recession if tariffs persist beyond six months.
- Canada could face a projected 2.6% GDP loss.
It seems clear that tariffs, as currently implemented, are not beneficial for either country,
"For information purposes only"
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