U.S. TARIFFS /CHINA'S ECONOMY/ GLOBAL COPPER MARKET

 Extensively used across diverse sectors like Electric grids, Construction, Electronics, EVs and renewable energy, Copper's role is pivotal. With the increasing global focus on decarbonization, copper demand is predicted to see substantial growth.

Global copper production has been increasing in recent years, driven by demand for electrification, renewable energy, and infrastructure. For instance, production rose from 22.6 million tonnes in 2023 to an estimated 22.9 million tonnes in 2024, a 3.2% increase, according to projections from sources like Mining Technology (Web ID: 15). This upward trend is expected to continue, with a forecasted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.2% through 2030, reaching 29.3 million tonnes

Global copper supply has experienced an upward trend, with countries such as Chile, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of Congo leading production. However, obstacles present in varying political and bureaucratic landscapes in South America may impede the progress of new mining developments.


Top copper-producing countries in 2024 are as follows: (Estimated)
Chile (5.3 million tonnes)
Peru (2.6 million tonnes)
Democratic Republic of Congo (3.3 million tonnes)
China (1.8 million tonnes)
United States (1.1 million tonnes)
Russia (0.9 million tonnes)
Australia (0.8 million tonnes)
Indonesia (0.8 million tonnes)
Zambia (0.8 million tonnes)
Mexico (0.7 million tonnes)

Canada holds the twelfth position in global copper production, with an output of 508,250 tonnes in 2023, according to Natural Resources Canada. This marks a slight decline from the 509,062 tonnes produced in 2022, as reported by NRCan. Preliminary estimates for 2024 suggest production may rise modestly to around 510,000–520,000 tonnes, maintaining Canada’s ranking.

Forecasts from GlobalData predict a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% for Canadian copper production between 2023 and 2027, driven by ongoing projects and steady demand.

Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) reported in their "Copper Facts" (updated July 25, 2024) that Canada’s exports of copper and copper-based products were valued at $9.4 billion in 2023.with 508,250 tonnes produced.

For 2024, production likely edged up, and export value could top $10 billion CAD given higher prices, though we’re awaiting confirmation. For 2025, it’s too early for hard numbers, but price trends suggest continued strength.

 There are over 30 facilities across Canada involved in copper mining; Canada's copper production, valued at $9.4 billion in 2022, is forecast to grow 3% annually from 2023-2027.

Copper prices remain elevated (e.g., Investing.com shows a 26.59% rise since January 2025 began, though this is a futures contract spike). Production and export figures for Q1 2025 won’t be out until mid-year reports from NRCan or similar bodies.

China remains the world’s largest copper consumer, accounting for approximately 55% of global consumption, with an estimated 12–12.5 million tonnes consumed in 2024.

To address its economic slowdown, China initiated a multi-phase stimulus effort in September 2024, starting with monetary measures totaling ~3.95 trillion yuan (US$560 billion), roughly 3% of its 2024 GDP, aimed at enhancing liquidity, stabilizing financial markets, and supporting development. This was followed by fiscal commitments, including 2 trillion yuan (US$284 billion) in special sovereign bonds planned for 2024 and a 10 trillion yuan (US$1.4 trillion) debt swap program announced in November 2024 to ease local government debt over five years."


Analysts expect additional stimulus measures to be implemented, as the government strives to achieve its 5% GDP growth target for 2024. However, some experts caution that even more substantial fiscal support may be necessary. As this stimulus kicks in the anticipation is that copper demand will skyrocket, especially in sectors like construction, EVs, and renewable energy.

This dynamic presence in both production and consumption indicates that any change in China's economic policies or growth rate may have broad impacts on the global copper supply chain.

Grasping the supply-demand dynamics of copper and understanding China's pivotal role can prove instrumental in navigating the intricacies and volatility of the global copper market.

Rising demand, fueled by China's economic growth, will likely boost the share prices of Canadian & other mining companies, including small-cap Junior explorers and could create attractive investment prospects.

 

NOTE: Given that it’s March 20, 2025, and considering the evolving context of Donald Trump’s tariff policies, there are possible consequences and effects of his proposed tariffs on the copper market. Trump’s administration has indicated a strong intent to impose tariffs on copper imports, with an executive order signed on February 25, 2025, launching a Section 232 national security investigation into copper imports.

This probe, due by November 22, 2025, could lead to tariffs as high as 25% or more, mirroring actions taken on Steel and Aluminum. Additionally, broader trade measures—like the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico effective March 4, 2025, and reciprocal tariffs potentially starting April 2, 2025—could also impact copper.

 Trump’s tariffs could drive U.S. copper prices higher in the short term, disrupt supply chains, and strain downstream industries while aiming to bolster domestic production. Globally, they risk depressing demand (especially in China) and fracturing pricing, with retaliation adding volatility. The copper market’s trajectory hinges on the tariff rate (10–25%+), implementation speed (Q2 2025 or later), and global economic fallout

 

“For information purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell shares”

Mining news: www.minestockers.com

 

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