Precious Metals and Critical Minerals: Price Trends and 2025–2030 Outlook

 May 20, 2025

Over the past five years (2020–2025), precious metals and critical minerals have experienced significant price volatility, driven by geopolitical tensions, the energy transition, and shifting industrial demands.

-Gold-- In terms of price per ounce (USD), gold has risen from approximately $1,800 in May 2020 to around $3,230 in May 2025, representing an increase of roughly 80%.

-Silver-- The price per ounce (USD) has increased from about $17 in May 2020 to approximately $32.57 in May 2025, an increase of over 90%

-COPPER--As of May 2025, copper prices fluctuate around $4.50 - $4.60 per pound (or equivalent metric tonne price around $9,100 - $10,100). In May 2020, copper prices were around $2.10 - $2.80 per pound (or a metric tonne equivalent of $4,,630 - $6,173.).

-Platinum saw a modest 31% rise to $1,150 per ounce, constrained by declining automotive demand, while Palladium plummeted 55% to $1,000 per ounce due to the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) reducing catalytic converter needs.

Critical minerals, vital for clean energy technologies, showed mixed performance.

-Lithium prices soared 67–100% to around $11,000 per tonne, despite a post-2022 correction from oversupply. Copper gained 50% to $9,000 per tonne, driven by electrification needs.

-Rare earth elements (REEs) rose 40% to $70 per kilogram, supported by EV motors and wind turbines.

-Cobalt and Nickel lagged, with cobalt dropping 10–25% to $27,500 per tonne and nickel rising only 16% to $16,000 per tonne, impacted by substitution and oversupply from Indonesia.

Looking ahead to 2030, experts predict varied trajectories.

*Gold could range from $3,000 to $5,194 per ounce, implying a potential decline of 6.4% or a rise of 62.1%, depending on geopolitical risks and interest rates.

*Silver is expected to increase 17.6–47.1% to $40–$50 per ounce, with outlier forecasts reaching $100 in supply-constrained scenarios.

-Copper--Goldman Sachs: Expects the copper market to move into a supply deficit in 2026, potentially pushing prices above $10,500 per metric tonne.

Longer Term (to 2030): Some high-end forecasts suggest prices could even reach $15,000 - $40,000 per metric tonne in the longer term, but these are less consensus views and depend on very specific scenarios.

*Platinum and Palladium are projected to see modest gains, with Platinum rising 4.3–13.0% to $1,200–$1,300 per ounce and Palladium gaining 0–20% to $1,000–$1,200 per ounce, limited by EV-driven demand declines.

*Lithium-- The market is expected to be the second-largest critical mineral market by 2040 and the long-term trend for lithium prices is likely upward due to increasing demand.

*REEs could see the highest upside, with a 42.9–114.3% rise to $100–$150 per kilogram, fueled by clean energy applications.

*Cobalt and Nickel are expected to grow more modestly, with cobalt up 9.1–45.5% to $30,000–$40,000 per tonne and nickel up 25.0–56.3% to $20,000–$25,000 per tonne, tempered by substitution risks.

The combined market value of key energy transition minerals is projected to increase significantly, potentially by 55% by 2030 and more than double by 2040.

Investors should monitor central bank policies and mining developments closely. These forecasts hinge on macroeconomic conditions, trade policies, and technological advancements. A slowing Chinese economy or shifts in battery chemistries could depress prices, while supply constraints or geopolitical shocks could drive spikes.

SP

"For information purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell shares."

Mining News: www.minestockers.com (Disclosure: the writer is a shareholder in minestockers.com)

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