GRAPHITE: Critical Mineral, Critical Moment: Tariffs and the Scramble to Build a North American Graphite Supply Chain.
Graphite CriticalMinerals EVs SupplyChain NorthAmerica Mining
In a Quebec forest, an old graphite mine hums back to life. Thousands of kilometres away, in a Washington boardroom, trade officials sign off on tariffs designed to break China’s grip on the battery supply chain. The two events are more connected than they appear."
The global graphite market is projected to grow from $12.55 billion in 2024 to $23.87 billion by 2033, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6%. Some broader forecasts—which include both natural and synthetic graphite used in batteries, refractories, lubricants, and industrial applications—estimate the market could reach $26 billion by 2035, driven by rising demand in electric vehicles (EVs), energy storage systems, and advanced manufacturing.
Graphite is essential for lithium-ion battery anodes. Each EV battery typically contains 50–100 kg of graphite, making it the largest component by weight in the battery.
China Controls ~70% of natural graphite mining and over 90% of processing capacity and It supplies two-thirds of US graphite imports, especially battery-grade processed graphite.
That’s a strategic vulnerability.
Long-Term Bull Market Potential:- The share prices of graphite miners, particularly Junior explorers, will be highly volatile in the short term (1-2 years). This is due to a current supply surplus from China, which is keeping prices in check. Share prices will be driven by news, such as successful funding rounds, positive drill results, and new partnerships.
In the mid-term (3-5 years), a significant supply deficit is expected as EV demand outpaces current production. This is likely to lead to a sustained recovery and upward pressure on prices, benefiting companies that have successfully secured permits, financing, and off-take agreements.
The long-term (5-10+ years) outlook is overwhelmingly positive. Demand for graphite from the clean energy transition is projected to increase by over 1,400% by 2050. This will likely create a bull market for companies that have successfully transitioned into producers, making them attractive targets for strategic acquisitions by larger companies or battery manufacturers.
Here are some, but not all, key North American companies and their status:
-Northern Graphite Corporation (Canada): This is the only natural graphite producer in North America, with its Lac des Iles mine in Quebec. The company also has a near-construction-ready project at Bissett Creek, known for its high-quality, large-flake graphite, which commands premium prices. Its status as an active producer gives it a strong advantage in the race to provide a non-Chinese source of graphite.
-Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. (Canada): An advanced-stage developer focused on a fully integrated "mine-to-battery-anode-material" project in Quebec. The company's goal is to produce carbon-neutral active anode material, positioning it as a key player in the sustainable battery market.
-Lomiko Metals Inc. (Canada): A junior explorer developing the La Loutre project in Quebec, which has been described as the seventh-biggest graphite deposit globally and the largest undeveloped deposit in Canada. They are also exploring a lithium project in the region.
-Graphite One Inc. (USA): Its flagship project, Graphite Creek in Alaska, has been cited as the largest known natural graphite deposit in the U.S. and one of the largest in the world. This project has been designated a "High-Priority Infrastructure Project" by the U.S. government, giving it a strategic advantage. It plans to build a complete domestic supply chain from mine to processing.
-Westwater Resources Inc. (USA): This company is focused on the downstream processing of graphite, with its Kellyton plant in Alabama. Its strategy is to become a domestic source of battery-grade graphite.
Tariffs and Trade Tensions:In a significant escalation of trade policy, the Trump administration recently imposed preliminary anti-dumping tariffs of 93.5% on Chinese graphite-based active anode material—a critical input for electric vehicle (EV) batteries. These new duties compound existing levies, including an 11.5% countervailing duty, 30% blanket tariffs, and 25% Section 301 tariffs, resulting in a total effective tariff rate of approximately 160%. The move aims to curb what U.S. officials describe as unfair subsidization and market distortion by Chinese producers. As a result, American automakers and battery manufacturers are facing rising costs and supply chain uncertainty, prompting a renewed push to develop domestic graphite production and processing capabilities.
In summary: The global graphite market stands at a critical inflection point. While China's current dominance, US Tariffs and a short-term supply glut have created price volatility, the long-term outlook is incredibly bullish, driven by the accelerating demand from the clean energy transition.
The real opportunity in this market is not just raw graphite, but the ability to process it into high-purity, battery-grade material. Consequently, investors and governments are now focused on developing secure, domestic, and vertically integrated supply chains. The success of companies like Northern Graphite, Nouveau Monde, Lomiko, Graphite One, Westwater Resources and others, in navigating the challenges of funding and project development will determine not only their share price performance but also the future energy independence of North America.
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