The Deficit Era Begins: Copper, Lithium, and the New Commodity Scarcity

The energy transition is colliding with mineral scarcity. Copper’s deficit is about to explode — 150,000 tons short by 2026. Lithium, graphite, and rare earths are racing ahead, nickel and cobalt are unpredictable, and platinum markets are shifting. If you care about EVs, clean energy, or commodities, this is the story to watch.
Global demand for critical minerals is surging. Copper is forecast to swing into a 150,000‑ton deficit by 2026, while lithium, graphite, and rare earths face accelerating shortages. Nickel and cobalt show mixed signals, and platinum markets edge toward balance. Discover the supply risks, price outlook, and geopolitical pressures shaping the next decade.
CriticalMinerals CopperDeficit LithiumDemand EnergyTransition EVBatteries RareEarths CommoditiesOutlook SupplyChainRisks PlatinumMarkets CleanEnergy

 November 20, 2025

The minerals and metals expected to be most in demand and at risk of shortage in 2026 and the following years include lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, and graphite, with additional tightness in some precious metals, aluminum, and rare earth elements. The drivers behind this trend are electrification, clean energy transitions, and greater demand from electric vehicles, grid infrastructure, and energy storage.

Most In-Demand Metals and Minerals:

-Lithium: Demand is projected to keep rising rapidly, with forecasts pointing to a possible ninefold increase by 2035 as electric vehicle and battery storage markets expand.

-Nickel: Essential for EV batteries (especially class‑1 nickel), nickel demand continues rising rapidly, and supply struggles to keep up, particularly for battery‑grade material.

-Cobalt: Critical for battery cathodes and projected to see further demand growth, with supply tightness persisting into the next several years.

-Copper is especially notable: what was a mild surplus in 2025 is now forecast to flip to a significant global deficit in 2026, with the International Copper Study Group projecting a 150,000‑ton shortfall due to slowing mine production and concentrate bottlenecks. This marks a transition from copper being seen as an industrial metal to a "strategic scarcity asset."

-Graphite and Rare Earth Elements (REEs): These remain critical for advanced batteries, electronics, green energy, and high‑tech manufacturing, with demand increasingly outstripping new project development for 2026.

-Aluminum: Remains in high demand for transportation, packaging, and construction; supply should grow steadily, but prices are expected to be supported by strong demand.

-Platinum Group Metals (Platinum and Palladium): A deepening supply-deficit is projected for platinum in 2026, with prices forecast higher as mine output continues to decline and no major new production comes online. Palladium faces similar structural issues, though declining demand from catalytic converters may temper shortages.

Shortage and Price Outlook:

Mining project expansion is lagging behind forecast demand, especially for lithium, nickel, and copper. Copper is forecasted to move from a modest surplus in 2025 to a deficit as early as 2026, with further shortfalls expected later in the decade. Lithium supply is challenged by surging demand for EV batteries and grid storage, while cobalt and nickel also face potential bottlenecks due to their complex global supply chains. Aluminum and zinc are expected to remain in healthy demand, but with supply growing gradually, so any disruption could tighten markets quickly. *Precious metals such as gold and platinum may see upward price pressure from ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical risk, with platinum specifically forecast to remain in a supply deficit in 2026.

In essence, the minerals most at risk of shortage in 2025–2030 include lithium, copper, graphite, and rare earths, with nickel and cobalt facing mixed supply signals. Copper is forecast to swing from surplus in 2025 to a 150,000‑ton deficit in 2026, anchoring price upside. Lithium demand is projected to grow 4–5× by 2035, while platinum may move toward balance in 2026 after years of deficit. Palladium faces declining demand from catalytic converters, which could potentially ease shortages. Aluminum remains in strong demand but vulnerable to trade and supply disruptions.

In summary, copper’s deficit‑driven rally anchors the 2026 minerals/metals price outlook, with most analyst predictions running between $10,000 and $12,000/t, and select battery metals and platinum tipped to see notable price upside amid supply stress and accelerating demand.

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For information only and not a recommendation to buy or sell shares.

Mining News: www.minestockers.com (Disclosure, The writer is a shareholder of minestockers.com)

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